After this weekend’s rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner mercenary force, Vladimir Putin and the Russia he rules cannot continue as if nothing happened. 

The dizzying events in Russia are expected to have far-reaching consequences for Putin's status, his hold on power and, it appears, the way Russian troops in Ukraine will now function. 

Prigozhin pulled his troops back from the brink, when they looked set to enter Moscow. What was agreed between him and Putin to get him to call off his rebellion is something we will only know later, if we ever know it at all. 

According to the Kremlin, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko mediated an end to the mutiny. The agreement was that Prigozhin will move to Belarus with his personal safety guaranteed, and the criminal cases against him and the men who joined him would be dropped.

Those Wagner mercenaries who did not participate in the rebellion will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. It may mark an end to the rebellion, but it’s only the beginning of the many questions arising from the mediated conclusion.

Will the Wagner force continue to exist and continue to have autonomy? What will happen to those Wagner men who followed Prigozhin? Will they wish to return and fight in Ukraine without their commander? Did Prigozhin himself agree to give up his skilled, brutal army that he built up over a decade? 

And the main question, which may soon be answered: Will Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and other senior officials in the Ministry of Defense, whose heads Prigozhin demanded, really be dismissed?

Prigozhin seems to have carefully planned his rebellion for some time, despite his repeated declarations that he was short of ammunition and men. But it is doubtful that even he fully planned Saturday’s dizzying pace of events, and seriously considered entering Moscow and overthrowing Vladimir Putin. A cautious assumption is that he hoped Putin, pressured by the events and the many supporters that Wagner has in Russia, would side with him over the head of the Ministry of Defense.

If so, on Saturday morning he doubtless was disappointed when Putin declared him a traitor, even if he didn’t mention his name. Prigozhin was not interested in replacing Putin, but in maintaining the status of his mercenary group and continuing to make money from his activities in Syria and Africa. 

The decision to rebel came when the Ministry of Defense demanded the Wagner force sign contracts with them, a demand later endorsed by Putin. Prigozhin, who hasn't been making financial gains in Ukraine while suffering considerable losses in manpower, realized he had to make a move and pose a threat to the Russian elite, lest he be swallowed up by the Russian army. 

Whether Prigozhin got everything he asked for or not, what happened in the last day in Russia exposed Putin's weakness and caused him irreparable damage. Even if American intelligence knew that Prigozhin was planning an imminent rebellion, no one expected the Wagner force to undertake such a rapid and unrestrained march toward Moscow. 

The dramatic developments put Russia's National Guard, police, and federal security forces on high alert, with tanks and armored vehicles moving through the Russian capital in anticipation of the arrival of several thousand mercenaries. Putin, who only that morning had declared the men behind the rebellion traitors and demanded that they be punished, retreated, and to some extent even authorized the actions already in the evening, within the framework of the conclusions reached.  

This, even though Prigozhin questioned the true goals of the Russian army in the war in Ukraine, almost caused a military coup, and along the way his men also killed more than ten Russian soldiers, while shooting down a plane and several helicopters.

At the conclusion of the events, Putin appears to be disconnected, not fully understanding the real state of affairs in his country and not thoroughly informed about them. And it can be expected that those around him already smell blood.

It’s also safe to assume that Saturday’s events will impact the war in Ukraine. It is yet unclear whether the Wagner force will return to fight at the front as if nothing had happened. Even so, the Ukrainian army will know how to take advantage of the changes and weaknesses in the Russian army, if they occur now or later.

The war is not going to end soon, and the events in Moscow could prod Putin to take even more extreme measures both at the front and inside Russia, and perhaps bring him closer to using tactical nuclear weapons. But what is happening can also further weaken the already-low morale among the Russian army and cause a drop in the motivation and performance of the soldiers.

One way or another, the events of the last 48 hours are just a preview of what we will see next. The threat to Putin may have been shelved for now, but the battles at the top of the Russian hierarchy have taken a new turn.