By solving a Russian domestic crisis, the Belarusian leader has effectively joined the ranks of Russian grandees vying for Putin’s favor by eliminating irritating problems that could distract the president from his high-stakes geopolitical machinations.

The regime is driven by ideas of supremacy and messianism, nationalism and imperialism. In this respect, there is no difference between Putin and his inner circle and Prigozhin.

The Wagner mercenary boss was counting on solidarity from senior army officers, and since he came close to reaching Moscow without encountering any particular resistance, he might not have been completely mistaken.

While saying little, Putin has revealed that military failures are entirely at odds with his vision for the future, while several more rounds of escalation—up to and including strikes on a third country—are something he can envisage.

The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible—and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.

For years, the Kremlin diminished the role of regional governors. But the war and the president’s self-isolation from real problems have changed everything. Now the enforced publicity of regional leaders may serve to restore their genuine popularity and authority.

Iran’s goal is to modernize its transport infrastructure using Russian money, and Moscow has little choice but to foot the bill.

In the current political system, Prigozhin can only be against the elite so long as he is for Putin. It would take the slightest sign from the president for the Wagner boss to disappear.

In occupied Ukraine, upcoming elections highlight the Kremlin’s limited room for maneuver following its declared annexation of parts of Ukraine last year: a costly decision forcing it to pretend that everything is going according to plan.

The recent transfer of Andrei Rublev’s world-famous Trinity icon to the Russian Orthodox Church illustrates the Kremlin’s superstitions and desire to give its war against Ukraine a spiritual foundation.