LONDON, May 29 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A return to the White House by Donald Trump would create challenges for the world’s other rich democracies. After all, the former President likes Russia's Vladimir Putin, is sceptical about climate change and favours “Make America Great Again” protectionism. The best insurance policy for remaining members of the Group of Seven wealthy nations is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote free trade and speed up action on global warming.
Of course, it’s far from certain that Trump will win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidential election in November 2024. Polls show he has a commanding lead over his party rivals, but trails his successor Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch.
There’s also no real knowing what Trump would do if he won. He is a wild card who feels little compunction to do what he says. But this is precisely the problem. Trump’s unpredictability could upset the relations between the United States and its core allies at a time of multiple interconnecting crises.
Biden has painstakingly created a consensus with his core allies since Putin invaded Ukraine last year. This solidarity was clear at the G7 summit in Hiroshima earlier this month.
The group isn’t just acting together to help Ukraine. Its members increasingly agree that they should derisk their exposure to the People’s Republic but not decouple their economies. The club of rich democracies also has an embryonic plan to build alliances with poorer countries in the so-called global South - for example, by helping them grow in an environmentally sustainable way.
What’s more, Biden is taking climate change seriously. He took the United States back into the Paris Agreement and got Congress to agree the climate-friendly Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
A second Trump administration would carry risks on all these fronts. The former president has refused to back Ukraine, instead boasting that he would stop the war in a day. The worry is that he could cut a deal with Putin behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s back. This would infuriate not just Ukraine but U.S. allies in Europe.
The Republican front-runner has also criticised Biden for being “pro-China” and said he will “tax China to build up America”. This is despite the current president adopting a stronger policy towards Chinese aggression while seeking to stiffen allies’ spines.
One worry is that Trump would attempt to decouple the United States from China or raise the temperature over Taiwan. That would increase the risk of a conflict with China while straining relations with more dovish U.S. allies. Chinese President Xi Jinping would certainly try to exploit any divisions.
Trump also has form when it comes to protectionism. While in office he slapped tariffs on Chinese steel and other products, as well as imports from Europe. Biden’s IRA also has protectionist elements, but at least the president lifted the European tariffs.
On the climate front, Trump seems unlikely to unwind the IRA, not least because Republican-leaning states like Texas benefit from the act’s subsidies for green tech. The bigger worry is that he would again pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. That could ease the pressure on other countries, including China, to accelerate their decarbonisation plans.
Trump might also show little interest in helping developing economies go green fast. Although Biden hasn’t provided much money to drive this initiative forward, he has installed a climate-friendly president of the World Bank and lent U.S. weight to schemes which help countries such as Indonesia finance the energy transition.
The world’s other rich democracies - call them the G6 - cannot change the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. However, they are not completely powerless. The best way to head off the risks of a second Trump presidency is to accelerate what they are already doing.
Start with defence. Its allies could rearm faster now, so they are less vulnerable in the event that America turns more isolationist. They could then if necessary take over the role of chief arms supplier to Ukraine - starting with the provision of F16 jets that the G7 dangled in Hiroshima.
Politicians in other rich democracies can also try to persuade Republican leaders that now is not the time to abandon Kyiv. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week met Trump and other Republican politicians to spread this message.
Meanwhile, the G7 could deepen its cohesion, for example by creating a committee to better coordinate economic relations with China. It could also expand its ranks to include other rich nations like South Korea and Australia, giving it more heft in the Asia-Pacific region where its only member is Japan. If U.S. allies provide a stronger front, Trump may feel less able to bully them.
While Biden is still in the White House, the other G7 countries could also persuade the president to take the edge off his protectionist policies. For example, the Biden administration could make a reality of “friendshoring”, the idea that the U.S. and its allies should spread factories which are shifting from China among friendly countries. By contrast, bringing all production back home would be incredibly inefficient and further stoke tension inside the G7.
The G7 could also make good on its promise to get the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system up and running next year. Trump effectively defanged the WTO when he was president. If it gets its teeth back, that may provide a brake on future protectionism.
Meanwhile, the G7 could accelerate its efforts to combat climate change. For example, it has promised further reform of the World Bank and other multilateral development banks. And if India is willing to agree a climate partnership with the G7, now is the time to do a deal. It would be a mistake to wait until 2025 and risk discovering that Trump is opposed to such pacts.
If other rich democracies adopt a vigorous mitigation strategy now, they’ll be better prepared if Trump does return. The former real estate tycoon would still bring lots of new risks if he spends another four years in the White House. The only silver lining would be that the U.S. constitution prevents him from seeking a third term.
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Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Katrina Hamlin
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