Wildly divergent views at two of Wall Street’s biggest banks show how much uncertainty is still out there about the Fed’s rate path.

Morgan Stanley is betting the central bank will start cutting rates in June 2024, then again in September and every meeting from the fourth quarter onward, each in 25-basis point increments.

Goldman Sachs sees the first 25-basis-point reduction in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by one cut per quarter through mid-2026 — a total of 175 basis points

Morgan Stanley’s projected path takes the policy rate to 2.375% by the end of 2025, while Goldman’s sees rates settling somewhere within a 3.5%-3.75% target range.