Terrorism Threat Assessment
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commentary
The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix
Today's terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. The fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, the magnitude and shape of which will depend on the course of the conflict.
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commentary
How to Put RAND Findings on Veteran Support for Extremism in Context
A RAND survey found that U.S. veterans appeared to support extremist groups at a rate lower than the general population. In contrast, a new University of Maryland study found that veteran status was the most prominent characteristic among extremists involved in terrorism attacks with four or more victims.
Sep 11, 2023
The RAND Blog
Todd C. Helmus @Helmus, Ryan Andrew Brown, et al.
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commentary
The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Researching Extremism Online
How big of a problem is extremism in the United States and around the world? Is it getting worse? Are social media platforms responsible, or did the internet simply reveal existing trends? We have few answers because this research is easy to do poorly and hard to do well.
Jul 17, 2023
The RAND Blog
Heather J. Williams @HeatherJWill, Alexandra T. Evans @AlexandraTEvans, et al.
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commentary
The Intelligence Community Doesn't Warn About All Attacks Against the U.S. Homeland. Why Not?
Targets for foreign threats against the United States increasingly include entities that are not part of the U.S. government or military. But too many of these potential victims are unaware of threats against them, are not warned with intelligence reporting about such threats, and lack information about options to protect themselves.
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commentary
After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan
The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
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commentary
States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings
As the United States grapples with how to prevent mass shootings, state governments might be best positioned to take the lead on long-term, sustainable efforts that prevent targeted violence.
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essay
How to Avoid Extremism on Social Media
Extremist groups have been trolling the internet for decades, and they have learned to temper their words and disguise their intentions. A new scorecard can help users—or parents, or advertisers, or the social media companies themselves—understand when they might be interacting with extremist content.
May 3, 2022
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blog
Terrorism Research: How RAND Defined and Built a New Field of Knowledge
In the early 1970s, amid a worldwide rash of bombings, hijackings, and hostage-takings, RAND researchers began creating the first international database of terrorist incidents. Maintained until 2009, it chronicles more than 40,000 terrorist attacks since 1968.
Mar 9, 2022
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blog
News Manipulation, the Risk of Civil War, Russia and Ukraine: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on tracking news manipulation during the pandemic, the threat of another civil war, preventing health insurance loss, and more.
Nov 19, 2021
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commentary
Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?
Does America's increasingly uncivil behavior mean we are heading toward civil war? The historical record seems to indicate that the country has a high tolerance for violence without breaking apart. But the threat of civil wars cannot be dismissed.
Nov 15, 2021
NBC News Think
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commentary
Defining 'Terrorism' Is the First Step to Defeating It
Western policy- and decisionmakers continue to grapple with how to define acts of terrorism and when it is appropriate to bring terrorism charges. Establishing a consensus on the definition of terrorism and bringing to center stage the importance of adequately charging acts of terrorism could be more important than ever.
Nov 8, 2021
The National Interest
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commentary
The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning
U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.
May 20, 2021
Military Times
Marek N. Posard @mnposard, William Marcellino, et al.
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commentary
Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process
The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.
May 14, 2021
NBC News THINK
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commentary
How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military
The military has a growing extremism problem because America does. Service members who embrace violent extremism are thankfully few; Americans citizens who do so are sadly far too many. As a nation we need to deal with both.
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commentary
Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists
The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.
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commentary
The Battle of Capitol Hill
The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.