There have been quite a few metrics of late indicating the US economy is slowing down following the Federal Reserve’s long campaign to rein in inflation. But the robust American labor market isn’t going quietly. Employment and wages increased in November and more people entered the labor force, defying expectations of continued softening as the central bank seeks to stick a soft landing. While this is good news for the American worker, it’s deflating hopes on Wall Street that the Fed will cut interest rates early next year. Over in Europe, rapidly weakening inflation and a feeble economy have raised bets the European Central Bank will slash rates in 2024.
Across America, the good jobs news came with a bonus: wage growth remains strong as inflation continues to slow. But of course that lends to concerns that price pressures might be harder to stamp out. The Fed meets next week with many expecting it will hold interest rates steady. The US economy meanwhile seems on track for that soft-landing Fed Chair Jerome Powell is aiming for. But he shouldn’t take a victory lap just yet, Karl W. Smith writes for Bloomberg Opinion. “The economy’s resilience suggests monetary policy may be broken, having contributed very little—if anything—to the big slowdown in inflation.”