International Diplomacy
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commentary
Can Vietnam Help America Counter China?
The United States should not count on Vietnam to help counter China. But the fact that Hanoi chose to elevate the U.S.-Vietnam partnership is a strong indication of its growing concerns about Beijing's rising assertiveness. If China becomes more aggressive, it could create new opportunities for Hanoi to strengthen the U.S. relationship.
Oct 6, 2023
Foreign Affairs
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blog
Nuclear Deterrence, Russia and Iran, Deepfakes: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how much is “enough” for U.S. nuclear forces, the budding Russia-Iran partnership, the challenge of detecting deepfakes, and more.
Oct 6, 2023
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commentary
Rightsizing the Russia Threat
A proper understanding of the threat Russia poses must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But his military cannot even fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bound the debate about the extent of the threat.
Oct 3, 2023
Foreign Affairs
Samuel Charap @scharap, Kaspar Pucek
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commentary
Japan Risks Reputation in Oceania with Fukushima Discharge
Japan's decision last month to begin discharging treated radioactive wastewater into the Pacific Ocean from its destroyed Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant is fairly unpopular in Oceania, potentially damaging Tokyo's reputation in this increasingly strategic region.
Sep 28, 2023
Lowy Institute's Interpreter
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commentary
North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are
China and North Korea have a history of friction, despite being seen as allies. As Russia, China, and North Korea move toward a closer trilateral partnership, the United States and its allies need to recognize that there are seams in the relationships that can be used to undermine it.
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commentary
Looking Beyond the War: Planning for Ukraine's Reconstruction
More certain than the outcome of the war is the need for an extensive post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. It is likely to be the largest post-war rebuilding effort since the one in Europe after World War Two. The United States and its allies and partners have an intense interest in the success of reconstruction.
Sep 18, 2023
The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune
Charles P. Ries @charles_ries, Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz
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commentary
With ASEAN Paralyzed, Southeast Asia Seeks New Security Ties
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations tirelessly proclaims its centrality to the region, but its inability to develop a coherent response to Chinese aggression or the crisis in Myanmar has effectively killed that claim. ASEAN members will inevitably continue to seek out alternative paths.
Sep 18, 2023
Foreign Policy
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blog
Teacher Pay, the Costs of Insomnia, Wildfire Prevention: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on teachers' dissatisfaction with their pay and work hours, the staggering costs of insomnia, connections between wildfires and food insecurity., and more.
Sep 15, 2023
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commentary
Separate U.S. Alliances in East Asia Are Obsolete
Washington manages its alliances with Tokyo and Seoul separately. But growing South Korean and Japanese military capabilities make a conversation about more integration unavoidable.
Sep 14, 2023
Foreign Policy
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commentary
A Case for Greater U.S. Engagement in Central Asia
Central Asia's souring relations with Russia and growing skepticism of Chinese influence have created a rare and valuable window of opportunity for the United States to bolster its image through greater long-term investment in the region.
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Arms Proliferation and Control
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Hard Times for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control
New START is slated to expire in February 2026 and cannot be extended. The next chapter in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control, if there is to be one, may not be written until rulers in Moscow ease repression at home, pull troops out of Ukraine, and recognize the mutual benefits of reducing, rather than stoking, nuclear tensions.
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blog
The War in Ukraine, Income Share Agreements, the Tech 'Cold War': RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why Ukraine isn’t like World War I, an alternative to student loans, the tech “Cold War" between the United States and China, and more.
Aug 25, 2023
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commentary
India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia
The jostling between India and China for influence in South Asia will likely prove crucial to the fate of U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. The good news, at least for now, is that New Delhi has been mostly successful in pushing back against Beijing's rising influence across the region.
Aug 21, 2023
Foreign Policy
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Geopolitical Strategic Competition
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Winning the Tech Cold War
Emerging technologies increasingly make it possible for machines to innovate much faster and more efficiently than humans ever could. The Pentagon can draw some important lessons for technology competition with China by looking at the U.S.-Soviet race to develop nuclear weapons during the Cold War.
Aug 17, 2023
The RAND Blog
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Geopolitical Strategic Competition
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Rethinking Who's Winning the U.S.-China Tech Competition
The competition between the U.S. and China is a multi-dimensional contest involving technological, economic, military, and political elements. To accurately assess a nation's standing, the focus should shift from measures (raw numerical data) to metrics, which offer meaningful interpretations of these numbers.
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commentary
New Zealand's New Prime Minister Is Making Nice with China
There is little question that New Zealand will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy, albeit perhaps a quietly Western-aligned one, when it comes to China. Washington should not become disillusioned with Wellington, but it should not hold high expectations about cooperation on China issues either.