Cooler inflation bolsters the argument for a Fed rate pause.
Federal Reserve officials received an encouraging inflation report on Tuesday as a key price index slowed more than expected in May, news that could give policymakers comfort in pausing interest rate increases at their meeting this week.
The Consumer Price Index climbed 4 percent in the year through May, slightly less than the 4.1 percent economists had expected and the slowest pace in more than two years. In April, it had climbed 4.9 percent.
While that remains about twice the rate that was normal before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, it is down sharply from a peak of about 9 percent last summer.
The fresh data offer the latest evidence that the Fed’s push to control rapid price increases is beginning to work. Fed officials have been raising interest rates since March 2022 to make it more expensive to borrow money, in a bid to slow consumer demand, tamp down a strong labor market and ultimately cool rapid inflation. They have lifted borrowing costs for 10 meetings in a row, to just above 5 percent, and many officials have suggested in recent weeks that they could soon take a pause to give themselves more time to assess how those adjustments are working.
Investors have been betting that Fed officials will leave rates unchanged at their meeting this week, breaking their long streak of increases. But they had also penciled in a small chance that policymakers might lift rates — a possibility that all but disappeared after Tuesday’s inflation figures. Even so, many investors continue to expect that Fed officials will restart rate increases in July.
“They are probably feeling a little bit relieved,” Laura Rosner-Warburton, a senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives, said. The report included both encouraging and discouraging news for policymakers, she said: “It lets them pause, but it keeps them pretty firmly on track” to raise rates again in the future.
Taken as a whole, the data suggested that while the inflation that has been plaguing consumers and bedeviling the Fed for two years remains stubborn, it is also meaningfully slowing. A cooling economy and a gradually weakening job market could help to further weigh down inflation in the months to come, which would give central bankers confidence that they have lifted borrowing costs enough to bring prices back under control.
The report showed that a closely watched inflation measure that strips out food and fuel prices to give a sense of underlying trends continued to slow in May on an annual basis. That “core” price index rose 5.3 percent in May compared with a year earlier. That was above the 5.2 percent economists had expected, but down from 5.5 percent the previous month.
That cooling comes as costs for some key services climb more slowly or even decline. Rental inflation has long been expected to cool off, and that is beginning to happen. Airfares came down sharply last month, and a range of recreation-related purchases — from movie tickets to pet care — moderated in price.
Fed officials try to keep inflation at 2 percent on average over time, using a different but related measure — the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. The Consumer Price Index measure comes out a few weeks earlier and contains data that feeds into the Fed’s preferred measure, which is why investors watch it so closely for a signal of where inflation is heading.
The central bank’s two-day meeting starts Tuesday and will conclude Wednesday afternoon, when officials are scheduled to release their interest rate decision. That announcement will be accompanied by a fresh set of economic projections — the first ones central bankers have released since March. Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, is scheduled to give a news conference to explain both the decision and the outlook.
Officials are trying to strike a delicate balance: They want to slow the economy enough to make sure that inflation is fully stamped out, but without hitting the brakes so hard that growth grinds to a halt and workers unnecessarily lose jobs.