Opinion
The ancient Greek general and historian Thucydides wrote that “of all manifestations of power, restraint impresses men the most”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to “destroy” the terrorist outfit Hamas for its unspeakable barbarism against Israeli civilians on October 7. “We will tear them apart,” he said. He has full licence under international law to do so. And, for the moment, he also has some limited licence in international politics and international public opinion, too.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv last Thursday. Credit: AP
Israel has one of the world’s most powerful militaries, somewhere between the fourth and 16th among 200 nations, excluding its nuclear capability, depending on which ranking you consult.
Hamas, even with the money and weaponry supplied by its great sponsor, Iran, is no match for the Israeli militarily. Hamas cannot defeat Israel on the battlefield.
But Israel could yet lose regardless. Remember the logic of terrorism. It is a tool used by the weak against the strong. It succeeds when it goads the stronger power into over-reacting, turning its strength against itself.
The clearest example is the September 11 terrorist attack on the US. Osama bin Laden managed to destroy buildings and kill nearly 3000 civilians. The US duly moved to root out al-Qaeda from its base in Afghanistan. But then it over-reacted with the opportunistic and unjustified invasion of Iraq.
America’s losses in that misbegotten adventure were beyond bin Laden’s wildest dreams. Some 4500 US troops killed, another 32,000 wounded, while the Pentagon spent about $US800 billion and the wider cost to the US Treasury was estimated at $US1.9 trillion.
At least 180,000 Iraqi civilians died violently. The US coalition partners suffered 318 troop deaths of their own, including four Australians.
For what? America opened Pandora’s Box. The Middle East was destabilised. Consequences included the creation of Daesh, or Islamic State. US credibility was left in tatters. Probably the biggest winner were the ayatollahs in Iran, who took advantage of the chaos to emerge as de facto rulers of Iraq.
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Only America was strong enough to inflict so massive an injury on itself and its interests. It was one of the gravest strategic blunders of the century, with George W. Bush aided and abetted by Tony Blair and John Howard. And it was entirely avoidable.
As a national security adviser to Barack Obama, Ben Rhodes wrote this week: “The US should have learnt from 9/11 the profound cost of being guided by anger and fear. I hope that is what we are telling the Israeli government.”
If Netanyahu deploys Israel’s military effectively, he has the opportunity to damage and perhaps dismantle Hamas. It won’t be simple. Hamas is dug in, literally, under Gaza. It operates from a complex network of tunnels built by the same man who led last week’s terrorist attack, commander of Hamas’ military wing Mohammed Deif, a nom de guerre.
Deif means “guest”, for his practice of sleeping in a different home every night to evade detection by Israel. He’s so careful that there exists in the public domain only one photo of him, a grainy one.
An undated picture shows Palestinian military leader of the radical Hamas movement, Mohammed Deif, at an unknown location.Credit: AFP
Deif has been preparing for an Israeli incursion into Gaza for years. Now that he has provoked it, the Israelis are on their way. Hamas will have fortified its lairs with booby traps and snipers. Its exact number of armed militants is unknown but there are Israeli estimates of around 30,000. And it holds about 125 hostages whom it has threatened to kill.
But while Netanyahu has a duty to kill Hamas terrorists, he has no licence to kill the innocent in Gaza. To his credit, Israel has warned civilians to leave the intended combat zone. This already sets Israel above its enemy as a more just and moral force. Hamas gave no warning to the families it tortured and butchered last week.
But, even before the full-scale Israeli attack, too many Palestinian civilians are dying. By cutting off food and water and power supplies to an entire population of 2 million, Israel is indeed guilty of collective punishment.
The 30,000 or so Hamas terrorists have been preparing for this moment and will have ample water and food. The only real victims will be ordinary Palestinians. It’s welcome news that, under pressure from the US, some water is to be supplied outside Israel’s intended target zone.
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Netanyahu should take care to be both effective and judicious in the use of force. Israel’s allies are urging him to protect innocent life. Joe Biden publicly has called on Israel to observe the laws of war, and Australia has echoed the call.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says that “we continue to discuss with Israel the importance of taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians”.
As he should. The military correspondent for Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Amos Harel, writes that “Israel knows the window for action open to it is not unlimited. Soon a humanitarian disaster may begin in the Gaza Strip, and reservations in the West will increase commensurately with the number of dead Palestinian civilians”.
Israel’s rare moment of international sympathy and support would be squandered. Israel’s enemies would be emboldened.
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Iranian proxy forces already are moving into position. Hezbollah, so far conducting only ritual rocket fire on Israel, is poised to attack in force across the border from Lebanon. Iran-backed militia forces are preparing for possible strikes on Israel from Syria. The West Bank is on fire. It doesn’t take much imagination to see Israel fighting for survival on multiple fronts.
And Vladimir Putin this week is due to meet Xi Jinping in China. Russia and China would be delighted to see their shared great rival, America, entangled once more in a fruitless Middle East war.
Israel’s allies have been reluctant to use the “r” word, urging it to restraint. Hamas deserves no sympathy from anyone and no Israeli restraint. But no Palestinian civilian deserves to die for the crimes of Hamas. Israel has a duty to act with military effectiveness. And an opportunity to impress with humanitarian restraint.
Peter Hartcher is international editor.
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