Members-only Briefs & Analysis
The way AI ‘learns’ poses risks so large, it almost supplants threats from China
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — The Intelligence Community’s 2023 Annual Threat Assessment released in March emphasized the Chinese Communist Party in what intelligence leaders later described […] More
Members Only Russian Mutiny Ushers In Morale Boost for Kyiv, as Ukrainian Forces Make “Steady Progress”
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — On the outskirts of the battle-worn eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, where Russia’s most effective mercenary force once tallied Moscow’s most […] More
Members Only A Life of Secrets: A Candid Conversation with Michael Vickers
Subscriber+Exclusive Interview — In his new book, By All Means Available: Memoirs of a Life in Intelligence, Special Operations, and Strategy, former Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence […] More
Members Only The Global Consequences of Russia’s Revolt
SUBSCRIBER+ EXPERT INTERVIEW – When an armed force of Russian mercenaries seized command centers and advanced toward Moscow, the effects set off a chain of events that […] More
Members Only Putin Faces His Most Serious Threat to Power, Even as Wagner Chief Halts March on Moscow
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — In a brief address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed not to “allow a civil war,” evoking the Russian […] More
Members Only To Isolate Russia, the West May Need the Global South. But is Modi Listening?
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — A burgeoning inside-outside strategy against Russia may have seemed a bit more apparent on Thursday as the U.S. Congress welcomed Indian […] More
Members Only Putin and the Million Dollar Questions for Intelligence Analysts
CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT ANALYSIS – With Ukraine now solidly into its long-awaited counteroffensive, western leaders are looking for signs of what impact the new actions […] More
Members Only When It Comes to US-China Talks, Something “Vital” Is Still Missing
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — A rare series of diplomatic overtures in Beijing were absent at least one “absolutely vital” ingredient, U.S. Secretary of State Antony […] More
Members Only China’s Quantum Leap Enters New Phase, After Unlikely Beginnings
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Ten years after Edward Snowden revealed the extent of a sprawling American surveillance program, China and the U.S. are now locked […] More
Members Only Exclusive Interview: Be Ready for a Fierce and Protracted Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Subscriber+Exclusive Interview — With Ukraine’s unmistakable blue-and-yellow colors now flying atop the rubble of the newly liberated village of Neskuchne in Ukraine’s embattled Donetsk Oblast, […] More
Members Only Intel Report from Ukraine as it launches Counteroffensive
CIPHER BRIEF INTEL REPORT — During a recent visit to Kyiv centered around The Cipher Brief’s Kyiv Economic and Security Forum, a small Cipher Brief […] More
Members Only Ukraine Enlists Local Drone Makers in War Effort
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING (KYIV) – After a near constant barrage of Russian missile attacks targeting Kyiv over the past several weeks, a wave of drones […] More
Members Only NATO’s Growing Arctic Club Could Soon Give Russia, China a Chilling Show Of Force
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — NATO may eventually need a new name, or at least more of a polar focus, the Chief of U.S. Naval Operations […] More
Members Only With China’s Help, Mexico Is On The Verge of Becoming a ‘Narco State’
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Deep inside a ravine on the outskirts of a western Mexican city overseen by among the world’s most powerful drug cartels, 45 […] More
June 7th, 2023
Members Only How Safe Would We Be Without Section 702?
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — A provision of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that has generated controversy around fears of the potential for abuse has proven to be crucial […] More
June 1st, 2023
Members Only ‘We Need an AI Geneva Convention,’ says Rep. Moulton
EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+MEMBER INTERVIEW — On the same day that a group of industry leaders warned of the “risk of extinction” that stems from unbridled artificial intelligence, […] More
May 31st, 2023
Members Only Exclusive Interview: Erdogan’s Next Five Years
EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+MEMBER INTERVIEW — After cruising to a second-round presidential victory over the weekend, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for 20 years, is now set […] More
May 30th, 2023
A Closer Look at Preventing Veteran Suicide
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — On September 17th, 1945, just weeks after the Japanese surrender that marked the end of the Second World War, a Connecticut […] More
Members Only Turkey’s Run-Off Could Upend Security in Europe, and Beyond
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – With world attention focusing in on Turkey’s presidential run-off election, where incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan is locked in what is perhaps the most […] More
Members Only China’s Diplomatic Dance Comes Amid Plans for War
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — China’s newest U.S. ambassador took up his post Tuesday, less than four months after criticizing President Joe Biden’s “indiscriminate use of force” […] More
Members Only Managing Expectations for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the U.S. has allocated more than $75 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian support to Kyiv, in […] More
Members Only Understanding the World Like a CIA Analyst
SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Over the weekend, Ukraine said its forces were encircling Bakhmut. Russia, meanwhile, congratulated its troops for taking the embattled Ukrainian city. […] More
May 22nd, 2023
Members Only Would Iran Be Safer Without a Nuclear Weapon?
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Rafael Grossi says Iran has already “amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons.” But he also […] More
Members Only Exclusive Interview: Ukraine and Beyond Through the Lens of U.S. Military Intelligence
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The battle for Bakhmut, where Russian paramilitaries have been leading an eight-month effort to take the symbolically significant Ukrainian city, was widely expected to […] More