The war against Hamas has only just begun. Hostages remain in the terrorists’ hands. The northern border is a question mark: Will Hezbollah react to Hamas’ call for a “mobilization day” this coming Friday? That’s unclear. But reporters are still writing stories, and I’ve talked to quite a few. Here’s a narrative I hear growing:
Part of the reason the United States neither knew of, anticipated, nor was able to react quickly to the Hamas attack on October 7 was because of Congress. Pick among the factors that have been suggested to me by no fewer than four journos:
Now, I’m as enthused as the next guy to find someone to blame for one of the most wanton and cruel attacks in recent history. And there are threads to pull in the list above. But the most important fact to consider here is that it is Iran’s terrorist proxies who launched this attack. If Kevin McCarthy were still speaker, it still would have happened. If Congress had done the right thing, and put money for Ukraine in the continuing resolution passed on the eve of a shutdown, it still would have happened. Having ambassadorial nominee Jack Lew in Jerusalem wouldn’t have stopped this war. (And just PS, this report accusing him of misleading Congress about Iran is one reason why he’s not moving.) And, as for the Tuberville tempest—phhhffft. I may agree or disagree with him, but a temporary delay in the promotion of US military officers has zip to do with the calculations of Hamas or Iran.
What is the thread to pull? US politics are in chaos. The exotics of the GOP (so they’re called in the House) won’t support more drawdown for Ukraine. The exotics of Washington’s think tank community (my words) won’t support efforts to increase the US defense budget. The president of the United States has hesitated for a year and a half to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win rather than merely fight to a stalemate, and to this day has not given a speech to the nation to rally support for the Ukrainians. Victory is not a word that passes his lips. And yes, as my colleague Marc Thiessen so eloquently underscored, our own borders are such a scandal that they are fueling an irrational and dangerous linkage with the need for a serious Ukraine strategy.
All of these things do not happen in a vacuum, and Washington is not a sealed room in which we can let go in the hope others will not draw conclusions. In Tehran, they’re not watching Tommy Tuberville or fretting about empty embassies. As I wrote in my Foreign Policy piece about the Iran calculus, they are watching a growing disorder at the very top of both the Democratic and Republican parties, and believe the United States is too consumed with its own political dogfights to back Israel or intervene in the case of an escalating war.
The Iranian leadership, which prides itself on both deep connections to certain Washington friends and trenchant analysis of American politics, has decided that Joe Biden’s top priority is his reelection, and therefore he must keep oil prices low and avoid confrontation at all costs. Certainly, part of Iran’s calculation in backing this war now was that Team Biden would not abandon the secret pact they struck with him to cool certain of Iran’s more troubling policies (killing/kidnapping Americans and enriching and stockpiling higher grade uranium) in exchange for relief from US sanctions. They see the Biden administration failing to update Congress on their ongoing dialogue in Oman, and they believe they have this White House wired. Let’s hope they’re wrong.