Overview
Raphael “Rafi” Cohen is director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He works on a broad range of defense and foreign policy issues, including defense strategy and force planning, Middle East and European security, and civil-military relations.
Cohen previously held research fellowships at the Brookings Institution, the American Enterprise Institute, and the National Defense University’s Center for Complex Operations. He has written for a variety of forums, including the Journal of Strategic Studies, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Fox News, War on the Rocks, Lawfare, The Hill, The National Interest, and other publications. He also served as a staffer on the Congressionally-appointed 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission and is now the deputy executive director of the 2023 National Defense Strategy Commission.
A military intelligence branched lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve, Cohen has held a variety of command and staff positions in both the active and reserve components, including during two combat tours in Iraq from 2005 to 2006 and again from 2007 to 2008. He holds a Ph.D. in government and an M.A. in security studies from Georgetown University and a B.A. magna cum laude in government from Harvard University.
Research Focus
Publications
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Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Africa
This report explores the potential for competition and conflict among the United States, China, and Russia in Africa; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jul 13, 2023
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Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America
This report explores the potential for competition and conflict among the United States, China, and Russia in Latin America; where competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 20, 2023
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Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East
This report explores the potential for competition among the United States, China, and Russia in the Middle East; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 1, 2023
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Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the 21st Century Outside the Indo-Pacific and Europe
This report explores where the United States, China, and Russia may be competing for influence in secondary theaters; where and why competition might turn to conflict; what form that conflict might take; and implications for the United States.
Apr 25, 2023
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Research Brief
Little in Common: Prospects for U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia Security Cooperation
This brief presents the overarching findings of a study that explored the extent to which the United States might still be able to cooperate with China and Russia, even in this era of strategic competition.
Feb 20, 2023
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Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in Europe and the Middle East
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in Europe and the Middle East across seven issue areas.
Feb 20, 2023
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Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
Feb 20, 2023
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Report
Vanishing Trade Space: Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in an Era of Competition — A Project Overview
To what extent can the United States still cooperate with China and Russia even in this era of strategic competition? This report, the first of a four-part series, presents the overarching findings of a study that explored this question.
Feb 20, 2023
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Report
French Army Approaches to Networked Warfare
The French concept of network-centric warfare argues that information-sharing enables forces to forgo armor and mass and underpins France's push for a middle-weight force -- one that can deploy to Africa but is robust enough for higher-end threats.
Jul 6, 2022
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Report
Russian Disinformation Efforts on Social Media
Although portrayals of Russia's disinformation machine as organized and well-resourced are exaggerated, social media disinformation can cause serious harm to U.S. interests. This report provides recommendations to better counter this threat.
Jun 7, 2022
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Report
Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions
Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This overview of a five-volume series presents ways to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.
Jul 19, 2021
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Report
The Future of Warfare Boxed Set
This series of reports examines the key geopolitical, economic, environmental, geographic, legal, informational, and military trends that will shape the contours of conflict between now and 2030.
Aug 26, 2020
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Commentary
Weighing U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq: Strategic Risks and Recommendations
Supporting a stable and friendly Iraq is in the long-term interest of the United States, and this requires maintaining a small force of military advisers to help train and develop Iraqi military capabilities so that Iraq can defend itself.
May 19, 2020
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Report
Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force
This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines significant environmental and geographic trends that could affect U.S. national security, including the opening of the Arctic, sea level rise, water scarcity, and increasing urbanization.
May 11, 2020
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Report
The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions
This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.
May 11, 2020
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Report
Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force
This volume of the Future of Warfare series explains six trends—U.S. polarization, China's rise, Asia's realignment, a revanchist Russia, upheaval in Europe, and turmoil in the Islamic world—that will drive conflict between now and 2030.
May 11, 2020
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Report
Military Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force
This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines significant factors shaping military trends over the next 10–15 years: changes in the size, quality, and character of military forces available to the United States and its potential adversaries.
May 11, 2020
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Research Brief
Peering into the Crystal Ball: Holistically Assessing the Future of Warfare
This brief summarizes a series of reports about the geopolitical, economic, environmental, legal, informational, and military trends that are likely shape the contours of conflict through 2030.
May 11, 2020
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Report
Russia's Hostile Measures: Combating Russian Gray Zone Aggression Against NATO in the Contact, Blunt, and Surge Layers of Competition
Exploring opportunities to deter, prevent, and counter Russia's use of hostile measures is critical to containing their consequences for both target countries and Western alliances and in both the gray zone short of war and conventional warfare.
Jan 7, 2020
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Commentary
Reflections on the Future of Warfare and Implications for Personnel Policies of the U.S. Department of Defense
This Perspective summarizes and synthesizes material from a workshop addressing how U.S. Department of Defense personnel policies may evolve to address future warfare environments, which are expected to be heavily influenced by advanced technologies.
Oct 16, 2019
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Research Brief
The Battle for Baghdad: Institutionalizing Army Lessons for Urban Combat
This brief recounts the U.S. Army's efforts in the Iraq War, especially in Baghdad, and offers lessons learned and recommendations to enable leaders and soldiers to be better prepared in future conflicts.
Jul 3, 2019
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Report
The U.S. Army and the Battle for Baghdad: Lessons Learned — And Still to Be Learned
To help the U.S. Army and U.S. Department of Defense retain institutional knowledge and fully prepare future leaders, RAND researchers recount the Army's efforts in the Iraq War, especially in Baghdad, and offer lessons learned and recommendations.
Jun 12, 2019
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Research Brief
The Growing Need to Focus on Modern Political Warfare
RAND researchers analyzed how political warfare is practiced today and identified ways that the U.S. government, its allies, and its partners can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
May 31, 2019
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Report
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.
Apr 24, 2019
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Research Brief
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.
Apr 24, 2019
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Report
Russia's Hostile Measures in Europe: Understanding the Threat
This report examines current Russian hostile measures in Europe and forecasts how Russia might threaten Europe using these measures over the next few years.
Jan 28, 2019
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Report
The History and Politics of Defense Reviews
This report explores the history and politics behind the post-Cold War history of defense reviews to understand how they evolved, what they can and cannot accomplish, and how the services and the Department of Defense can maximize their future use.
Apr 25, 2018
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Report
Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses
Analyzes how political warfare is practiced today and identifies the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
Apr 5, 2018
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Report
Strategic Planning and the U.S. Air Force: Characteristics of Success
The U.S. Air Force has embarked on a new round of strategic planning under the auspices of its 2015 Strategic Master Plan. This report represents a general survey of the state of the art in strategy and planning.
Nov 10, 2017
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Research Brief
Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
This brief summarizes a RAND report that explores lessons that the U.S. Army and the Joint force can draw from Israel's military operations in Gaza from 2009 to 2014 and how Israel adapted to hybrid adversaries in complex urban terrain.
Oct 18, 2017
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Report
Implications of the Security Cooperation Office Transition in Afghanistan for Special Operations Forces: An Abbreviated Report of the Study's Primary Findings
Presents findings from six historical case studies in which the mission of special operations forces in each of the six countries transitioned over time to include some level of inclusion in the U.S. embassy's Security Cooperation Office.
Aug 1, 2017
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Report
From Cast Lead to Protective Edge: Lessons from Israel's Wars in Gaza
This report describes how the Israel Defense Force fought an adaptive hybrid adversary in a dense urban setting under intense public scrutiny during its wars in Gaza and draws lessons from the Israeli experience for the U.S. Army and the joint force.
Jul 26, 2017
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Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank: Emerging Opportunities for Engagement
This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify how changes in their interests, strategies, and capabilities affect U.S. partnering in the region.
Jun 20, 2017
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Report
Sustaining the Army's Reserve Components as an Operational Force
This report identifies emerging policy lessons regarding the use of, and reforms to, the U.S. Army's Reserve Components (RCs) as an operational reserve derived from analyses of their contributions to recent contingency operations.
Jun 12, 2017
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Report
Reimagining the Character of Urban Operations for the U.S. Army: How the Past Can Inform the Present and Future
Provides a historical analysis of how militaries have deployed light and mechanized infantry with armored forces during close urban combat, to identify the comparative advantages and costs of this warfighting approach and lessons learned.
Mar 13, 2017
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Report
Air Force Strategic Planning: Past, Present, and Future
This report examines the history of strategic planning efforts in the U.S. Air Force. Ultimately, this report argues that the Air Force still needs strategic planning, but perhaps not in its current form.
Feb 28, 2017
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Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank — Emerging Opportunities for Engagement: An Overview
This document is the executive summary of a report that explains the implications of the changing security relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.
Jul 7, 2016
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Report
Demystifying the Citizen Soldier
This report analyzes the National Guard's centrality to American national security, the idea that it prevents the United States from fighting controversial foreign wars, and its claim to embody the concept of the citizen soldier.
Dec 3, 2015
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Research Brief
Lessons from 13 Years of War Point to a Better U.S. Strategy
This brief summarizes seven lessons from the past 13 years of war and identifies critical requirements for land forces, special operations forces, and partners to collaborate successfully.
Dec 10, 2014
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Report
Improving Strategic Competence: Lessons from 13 Years of War
This study formulates seven lessons from the past 13 years of war and identifies critical requirements for land forces, special operations forces, and partners to collaborate successfully.
Oct 14, 2014