Briefs & Analysis

How the War in Ukraine is Driving a New Global Order

Is the Ukraine a Global Inflection Point? And if so, with what Consequences? OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Since early on in the Ukraine war, […] More

Columns

Diogenes the Cynic’s Job in Russia just got harder

OPINION — No one should lament the passing of Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin. According to Russian officials, Prigozhin was a passenger on an Embraer Legacy 600 aircraft […] More

Columns

Could Prigozhin’s Death be a Step Toward Sudden and Catastrophic Collapse for Putin?

OPINION — Who can be surprised that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin met his timely end? Many have cited variations of the quote attributed to Ralph Waldo […] More

Briefs & Analysis

With Prigozhin Presumed Dead, What Happens to the Wagner Group Now?

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — The news was perhaps as unsurprising as it was shocking: Russian officials say that a plane that crashed northwest of Moscow […] More

Columns

Putin’s Godfather Role of a Lifetime

In light of the reported death of Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, The Cipher Brief tapped a number of experts for their thoughts on what […] More

Columns

Prigozhin’s Final Lesson was that not even He Could Escape Kremlin Rules

OPINION – Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was a violent man who lived life on a knife’s edge; that he reportedly met a violent end […] More

Columns

What’s Happening in Niger Should be on Everyone’s Radar

OPINION — In late July 2023, the democratically elected President of the West African nation of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum, was overthrown by members of the […] More

Columns

A Roadmap for Strengthening Ukrainian Resiliency in the Medium to Long Term

ACADEMIA — The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has left Kyiv at a crossroads with a range of questions to consider for the future. […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Exclusive Interview: A Sobering Battlefield Assessment in Ukraine

ZAPORIZHZHIA, UKRAINE – AUGUST 11: A hole left by missile near a hotel. (Photo by Elena Tita/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images) SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Prigozhin’s Uncertain Fate

EXPERT PERPECTIVE — In the wake of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 36-hour mutiny and the scant and the confusing smoke signals emanating from the Kremlin […] More

Columns

Ukraine is Putin’s Calculated War

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Russian President Vladimir Putin told a group of reporters recently that while Russia “is ready for any scenario”, the country does not […] More

Columns

How We Should be Preparing now for a Russian Collapse in Ukraine

OPINION — The consensus among geopolitical pundits seems to be that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has turned into a slog and that US and NATO policy […] More

Columns

While India Cuts Deals with the US, its heart is likely with Russia

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The United States believes it has secured India as a strategic ally in the Indo-Pacific region. There will certainly be mutual benefits […] More

Briefs & Analysis

CIA Director: Putin’s Hold on Power Betrays “Significant Weaknesses”

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – A social contract that Russian President Vladimir Putin has engineered over the decades to cement his authority may now be showing signs […] More

Columns

What Impact has Prigozhin’s Mutiny really had on Putin?

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT VIEW — Much debate is now underway about whether Russian president Vladimir Putin will sustain lasting political damage from the June 24 […] More

Columns

If The Wagner Group is a Terrorist Organization, Shouldn’t We Say So?

OPINION — The recent bizarre events in Russia have brought increased attention to Yevgeny Prigozhin and his brutal mercenary group, Wagner. While Prigozhin’s future is […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Western Focus Sharpens on China Over Black Sea Grain Deal

EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+ INTERVIEW — In the wake of a Kremlin decision to halt a U.N.-brokered Black Sea agreement, which allowed Ukraine to export tens of millions […] More

July 17th, 2023

Briefs & Analysis

NATO’s Four Big Challenges: A Subscriber+Exclusive Interview

Exclusive Subscriber+Interview  — This week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius may have fallen short of the clear path to membership that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has […] More

Briefs & Analysis

NATO Intel Chief Warns Russia: Ukraine ‘belongs in the NATO family’

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – In late 2021, NATO Assistant Secretary for Intelligence and Security David Cattler traveled to Kyiv, Ukraine, just around the time Russian […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Erdogan’s ‘Poker Game’ Uses Sweden As Chip: A Subscriber+Exclusive Interview

Exclusive Subscriber+Member Interview — In a flurry of negotiations on the eve of the NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed himself as the […] More

Briefs & Analysis

What Iran is Really After: A Subscriber+Exclusive Interview

EXCLUSIVE SUBSCRIBER+INTERVIEW — Iranian forces recently attempted to seize two oil tankers in separate incidents within a few hours of each other in the Gulf […] More

Briefs & Analysis

NATO’s Road to Vilnius Has Been a Tough One: Here’s What to Know as Members Meet

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Members of the world’s largest and most powerful security alliance descended on Vilnius, Lithuania over the weekend in what is considered […] More

Columns

Indications and Warnings of Regime Instability in Russia

A Few Things to Look Out For OPINION — The Wagner mutiny in Russia was short-lived, but it was nevertheless a watershed event in post-Soviet […] More

Briefs & Analysis

What Prigozhin’s March Taught Us About Putin’s Russia

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING & EXPERT ANALYSIS – Just a week after Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched the final mission of his mercenary career in the […] More

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