Briefs & Analysis

The Global Consequences of Russia’s Revolt

SUBSCRIBER+ EXPERT INTERVIEW – When an armed force of Russian mercenaries seized command centers and advanced toward Moscow, the effects set off a chain of events that […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Putin Faces His Most Serious Threat to Power, Even as Wagner Chief Halts March on Moscow

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — In a brief address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed not to “allow a civil war,” evoking the Russian […] More

Briefs & Analysis

To Isolate Russia, the West May Need the Global South. But is Modi Listening?

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — A burgeoning inside-outside strategy against Russia may have seemed a bit more apparent on Thursday as the U.S. Congress welcomed Indian […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Putin and the Million Dollar Questions for Intelligence Analysts

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT ANALYSIS – With Ukraine now solidly into its long-awaited counteroffensive, western leaders are looking for signs of what impact the new actions […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Exclusive Interview: Be Ready for a Fierce and Protracted Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Subscriber+Exclusive Interview — With Ukraine’s unmistakable blue-and-yellow colors now flying atop the rubble of the newly liberated village of Neskuchne in Ukraine’s embattled Donetsk Oblast, […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Managing Expectations for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the U.S. has allocated more than $75 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian support to Kyiv, in […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Would Iran Be Safer Without a Nuclear Weapon?

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT – International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Rafael Grossi says Iran has already “amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons.” But he also […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Exclusive Interview: Ukraine and Beyond Through the Lens of U.S. Military Intelligence

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The battle for Bakhmut, where Russian paramilitaries have been leading an eight-month effort to take the symbolically significant Ukrainian city, was widely expected to […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Putin’s Days May Be Numbered, but China’s the Bigger Threat, says Ex-CIA Chief 

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Someone other than Vladimir Putin will likely be running Russia in as little as three years, says former CIA Director and […] More

Briefs & Analysis

The Stakes in Ukraine are Greater than you Think

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – On the eve of a widely predicted Ukrainian offensive along a 900-mile front that includes a bevy of fixed Russian positions, the very nature […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Fighting in Sudan has Far-Reaching Implications

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – Hundreds of Americans fled Sudan over the weekend in two convoys headed for port cities.  The U.S. government led evacuations some two […] More

Briefs & Analysis

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on China: Don’t Call it ‘Decoupling’

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Eight days after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a Johns Hopkins crowd that America does “not seek to decouple our […] More

Briefs & Analysis

The Great Tech Race of our Time

SUBSCRIBER+MEMBER EXCLUSIVE – The battle for semiconductors, a core ingredient of both basic and advanced technologies – such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) – has long […] More

Briefs & Analysis

China’s Chess Game in Ukraine: Is the West Ready?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — On the heels of Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, the world seems to be waking up to the implications of China’s possible […] More

Briefs & Analysis

After Moscow, What is China’s Next Move?

ANALYSIS/INTERVIEW — Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended talks in Moscow this week by declaring that their alliance was driving geopolitical change […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Intelligence in the Age of New Global Alliances

ANALYSIS/INTERVIEW — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow this week demonstrates Beijing’s strongest support yet for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the China-Russia alliance, […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Is China Coming to Russia’s Rescue in Ukraine?

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:  Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said at an annual parliamentary session in Beijing this week, that China is actively working to […] More

Briefs & Analysis

The Wagner Group’s Route to Infamy

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:  The privately-owned Russian soldier-for-hire group known as the Wagner Group once operated in the shadows but in the past year, it […] More

Briefs & Analysis

The Quantum Revolution is Almost Upon Us

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT:  The potential of quantum is unquestioned, and far-reaching.  It could create unbreakable encryption (and render current encryption methods useless), propel advances […] More

Briefs & Analysis

The Real Impact of Western-Supplied Arms to Ukraine

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: A crucial decision by Germany to provide Leopard II main battle tanks to Ukraine and to allow other Leopard-equipped militaries to do […] More

Briefs & Analysis

What Japan’s Massive Defense Investment Means for the World

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Japan’s new security strategy is bringing unprecedented change to its military policy and is introducing a new dynamic for global collective […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Can Russia’s Military Recover in Ukraine?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — As the Russian war against Ukraine enters its 11th month, Moscow has fallen dramatically short of the military goals it set out last […] More

Briefs & Analysis

A Coming Year of Change in the Middle East

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Change is a constant in the Middle East as the past several months have demonstrated with focused attention on protests in Iran, […] More

Briefs & Analysis

Russia’s Wounded Economy — How Bad is it?

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The European Union has made its long-awaited decision to cap Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel and to prevent European companies from shipping […] More

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