Three weeks after Hamas’ abhorrent attack on its southern border, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel had entered “a new phase in the war,” deploying ground forces into Gaza. The Gaza battle is poised to be long and difficult, but even if Israel manages to achieve its maximalist aim of incapacitating Hamas, the challenge does not end there. The resulting devastation will almost certainly test the success of Israel’s invasion. Then Israel must prepare for a unique—but fleeting—opportunity to bring legitimate change to Gaza following its withdrawal, lest it risk creating a security vacuum that plunges the Middle East into deeper instability.

What comes the day after war matters hugely to Israel, the region, and its allies across the world. The Biden administration’s extraordinary support for Israel since October 7th is by and large to protect Netanyahu’s government from repeating the United States’ own wartime missteps in the wake of 9/11. While the U.S. pursued a worthy goal in the removal of Saddam, the history of the Iraq War has proven that negligent post-war planning can completely undermine the merits of any military operation. By embracing an invasion without a defined political outcome, Israel risks leaving behind a Gaza in shambles that has no identifiable central power and would almost certainly be vulnerable to a violent power struggle. Even more, it would pass off a victory to Hamas’ main benefactor, Iran, who will surely use the power vacuum to advance its own goals, which include consolidating complete control over the region, evicting any U.S. footprint from the Middle East, and annihilating the state of Israel.

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