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Researchers collaborate across disciplines at RAND to evaluate terrorist, military, nuclear, cyber, and other threats to U.S. national security—identifying emerging threats, scrutinizing known risks, and evaluating potential strategic and tactical responses. Recent studies have included examinations of ISIS, Iran's nuclear capabilities, and insider threats.

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  Commentary

  Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

  China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

  Mar 24, 2023

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  Q&A

  Keeping America Safe in an Age of Danger: Q&A with Andrew Hoehn and Thom Shanker

  In their new book, Andrew Hoehn and Thom Shanker argue that America has entered an age of danger that may come to rival anything in its history. They explain why the national security system needs an overhaul as we face a growing array of threats, from cyber attacks to climate change.

  Jun 26, 2023

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  Commentary

  Rightsizing the Russia Threat

  A proper understanding of the threat Russia poses must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But his military cannot even fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bound the debate about the extent of the threat.

  Oct 3, 2023

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  Commentary

  UFO Research Is Only Harmed by Antigovernment Rhetoric

  There is an undercurrent of conspiracy theory and, relatedly, antigovernment sentiment brewing around the issue of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP). If it grows, it could prove toxic to any factual and scientific discussion of UAPs.

  Sep 22, 2023

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  Commentary

  Cyber Attacks Reveal Uncomfortable Truths About U.S. Defenses

  Without government investments and policies to drive transparency and a clear understanding of what cybersecurity tools do, how well they work, and how securely they are built, the United States risks continuing to offer its adversaries the means to undermine its systems and, ultimately, its security.

  Sep 21, 2023

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  Commentary

  Taking the Measure of AI and National Security

  Transformative technologies should not be abandoned due to their risks. Instead, we should focus on understanding the threats, implementing necessary countermeasures, and utilizing the tools in a safer and more secure manner.

  Sep 20, 2023

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  Commentary

  North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership

  There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China-North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.

  Sep 13, 2023

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  Commentary

  How to Put RAND Findings on Veteran Support for Extremism in Context

  A RAND survey found that U.S. veterans appeared to support extremist groups at a rate lower than the general population. In contrast, a new University of Maryland study found that veteran status was the most prominent characteristic among extremists involved in terrorism attacks with four or more victims.

  Sep 11, 2023

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  Commentary

  A Model for Regulating AI

  While AI will bring many benefits, it is also potentially dangerous. We would do well to establish a model of oversight that focuses on the three parts of the AI supply chain: hardware, the training of each model, and rigorous review before each model is released.

  Aug 16, 2023

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  Commentary

  Embracing the Messiness of Public-Private Collaboration in the Fight Against Botnets

  Botnets are networks of computers infected with malware that an attacker controls and uses to fulfill malicious cyber activities. Decisionmakers could incorporate a complex adaptive systems perspective to assess if their organization and immediate network, as well as the overall ecosystem, are adaptable and resilient enough to respond to botnet activities.

  Aug 16, 2023

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  Commentary

  It Should Not Have Been a Surprise: The Threat from Putin's Russia

  The recent NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, left the world asking a hard question: “Are we in a new Cold War with Russia?” Our answer is to a different, and harder, and more important question: Is Russia already at war with the West?

  Aug 1, 2023

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  Blog

  Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, Neurodiversity, Russia's 'Forever War': RAND Weekly Recap

  This weekly recap focuses on public reports of unidentified aerial phenomena, neurodiversity and national security, Ukraine's path to victory, and more.

  Jul 28, 2023

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  Report

  Where Are Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Sightings in the United States?

  The February 2023 Chinese surveillance balloon incident raised questions about the degree to which the U.S. government knows who is flying what over its skies. Public reporting of unidentified aerial phenomena may help officials identify potential threats.

  Jul 25, 2023

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  Commentary

  UFOs Are Not the Only Potential Threat in American Skies

  How can the United States best monitor its millions of square miles of domestic airspace for unidentified anomalous phenomena—what were once called UFOs—or anything else? Public reporting could help officials identify potential threats—but it'd help if the sightings being reported were actually unknown aerial phenomena and not U.S. military aircraft.

  Jul 25, 2023

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  Commentary

  The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Researching Extremism Online

  How big of a problem is extremism in the United States and around the world? Is it getting worse? Are social media platforms responsible, or did the internet simply reveal existing trends? We have few answers because this research is easy to do poorly and hard to do well.

  Jul 17, 2023

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  Commentary

  Tackling the Existential Threats from Artificial Intelligence

  Addressing potential risks posed by artificial intelligence (AI) could begin with simple steps like finding appropriate risk-management approaches, conducting research to determine how AI can better meet designers' intent, and devising responses to issues related to racism, sexism, and other biases within AI systems.

  Jul 11, 2023

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  Commentary

  Climate Security Is National Security

  Mitigating the effects of climate change will require a whole-of-government approach and a redefinition of national security to embrace a more panoramic set of risks. Government officials are saying lots of the right things. But is it being done, and done quickly enough?

  Jun 30, 2023

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  Report

  How Violent Extremists Behave Online

  Exploitation of the internet by violent extremists is as old as the technology itself. But ideologically motivated violent extremism (IMVE) actors generally, and especially in online spaces, have been adapting to and adopting the evolving technological landscape in more sophisticated ways.

  Jun 28, 2023

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  Report

  Could Taiwan Fend Off a Chinese Attack?

  China's growing military advantage suggests that, even with major improvements to Taiwan's defenses, U.S. intervention will be necessary to deter or defeat an attack by China. Changes in aspects of Taiwan's political leadership and social cohesion offer the surest path for developing the island's capacity to resist a large-scale attack.

  Jun 27, 2023

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  Commentary

  Taiwan's Will to Fight May Be Stronger Than You Think

  Should China mount an invasion, Taiwan's political leadership and degree of social cohesion will be the most important factors in its defense.

  Jun 27, 2023

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  Journal Article

  Not-So-Great Powers: U.S.-China Rivalry in the Neomedieval Age

  Counterintuitive as might sound, U.S. decisionmakers should avoid strategies and methods drawn from industrial-age great power competition.

  Jun 7, 2023