• 00:00Jan, that sort of comes as we get OPEC plus next week. You were just in Saudi Arabia. What do you think we're going to see? Well, I think somebody is always some narrative surrounding upcoming meetings, and I've been just back asking me to say this morning, I can tell you this, whether you decide to cut, do nothing to add. I think no, this is the highest common denominator for opaqueness to mitigate the downside and reduce volatility. I think their track record says it all. I mean, they've proven correct with every move they have made, including the loss. And some wise also think having just been their central banks around the world could learn a thing or two from the Saudi energy minister. Prince up uprisings. He is, though, talking about maybe wanting to inflict a little bit of pain on the shorts if he wants to inflict a little bit of pain. Christian, doesn't he need to deliver a big cut? Because thus far those kinds of threats have been fairly ineffectual. Yeah, I think in the end, the suspect is always be there. It's whether they're a dominant feature or whether they're sort of in the mix. I think oil is being used as a proxy for inflation hedging at some point in the past. Now it's being used as a proxy for recessions, kind of being used in asset class for all the wrong reasons. And the danger with that guy is that what happens is the volatility goes to Max. The industry itself, which uses oil as a revenue line, doesn't invest because of that. And we see much higher prices in the future. So it's I think it's less around trying to remove the shorts. It's more about trying to reduce massive volatility in the future and massive inflation for consumers, because in the end, we don't see investment today because everyone's terrified because of the shorts. We're going to pay for it later and much higher prices where everyone looses in the end, especially the consumer, which is why it's interesting to see a guy, how the Emily Chang is evolving. So several all this week by PDC, energy is a great deal for Chevron. It just helps them maintain their production. It isn't like grow. This is not like a transformational investment. Yet what is over six billion dollar deal like this is where we're spending our money now rather than we're going to put a lot of money into deep water. So are we at the point now where it is? It is it is better. It is easier to find it in the stock market than it is in the ground. Maybe the easier, maybe cheaper. Alex, you agree? I mean, you sort of. So when did you introduce the idea of volatility and removing the shorts? And in fact, the danger to this is what the cost of capital of oil, so to speak, goes up. And so the incentive to invest and build massive production runways over 10, 15 years, especially with the ETF branch, especially with emissions pressure, especially shale, where the pressure is simply that you say, why would I bother? I'll just buy in us. And the fact that this asset is bought, I mean, that productivity will follow. As I said, it's I wouldn't say it's top quartile. It said it all. It says that we are now running short of shale volume growth in terms of investing. And I think it's very bullish. I mean, this year we put a supercycle on hold. But on the medium term, we think is going to plateau out in three to four years. And really the only way the only place the world can look for additional black oil will be IBEX. So you did just have your energy outlook. And global energy outlook is the second time you've done that. Why have you pushed out the supercycle thesis? Is that demand driven like what surprised you? Absolutely. There's demand there. And I mean, demand is king of the complex. I sort of have to sort of be humble when we do this work on analysis, run energy shortages. But the reality is and we kind of try lemme try them again back in 18. There is support. We are introducing the energy quadrant. Now, what is that was the generation of energy. The energy system to get the energy to the consumer. The government policy which inconsistent with fuel. And finally, time energy transitions can be a multi decade, if not a more generation process. So I can be concerned about demand in the near term. But my major concern, having zoomed in on the energy system, is we're practically like all materials technology to get clean energy to the consumer. In times you can generate as much as you want. And the danger of that is you see energy demand growth continuing off to sort of this sort of 12 to 18 month kind of pause because of the recession and somewhat inflation. Then it rolls back over the decade. And we have extreme energy shortages over the coming years and price activity, especially in. So, Alex, this is if this takes us back to the question we were asking earlier on this week, is Europe setting itself up for another energy crisis? A lot of the investments in renewables is going to the states and you do wonder whether therefore the states has a lead. It's also got some of the gas which Europe is going to struggle to get. And you do wonder whether whether therefore, actually the epicenter of the crisis, if we if we kind of follow Christian's line, is going to be in Europe. Yeah, that's interesting point. And Christian, in your piece, you basically are looking at a one point three trillion dollar cap ex call. But the majority of that comes actually from power generation. And I'm interested to see where you see that capital being deployed. It means that, in fact, it's not only its one point three trillion of incremental spend, which we're not spending far less than where we spend it. It's the metals, it's the technology around storage. It's the grid. Where does all of that live? It lives in China. So we're basically massively dependent on China for the energy system we can generated in the West. We can produce solar energy and wind. But if you need the system, you need metals. So the energy transition itself is going to see a major energy demand shock, which we can't solve because we need the energy and we're not producing it. And it all comes back to what energy do we have today to solve for it? What metals we have today to solve with the energy if its oil sits with OPEC, the system. If it's the materials sits in China. So we're setting ourselves up in a way where coming back to Europe, they can solve the near-term in terms of sort of either your taxing the industry or subsidizing it through the community for the consumer. What we're doing is kicking and down the road to major energy shortages in the second half of this decade. So we're sort of sleepwalking into it. So question how do you play it smart and long term when you can't get oil prices to bid? How do you play the oil majors and then what do you do with like the BP and shells of the world where investors don't like their alternative investments as much? Ultimately, you want to be playing it through being massive, I think exposed to companies who control their energy with the right sorts of energy on the right stores of cash returns. Anyone that can grow in group in oil and gas at the same time is being able to decarbonise through clever ways through technology. At the same time as generating cash flow, you can't have one without the other. And I think you're right around the European majors. The risk is they're transitioning, but they're leaving the cash behind in terms of cash return. So if I look at that. Who's got the greatest cash return? Who's got the most valuable growth in oil ability actually to think about and soulful could decarbonisation. It's total energy shell. And then in the US, Exxon and Oxy, they have a real volume growth. And if committed and still have a reserves life with a runway, all the others, I mean, a lot of the others that are struggling. Why don't I just. Why don't I buy oil companies? Because they're oil companies and renewable companies because they're renewable companies. Why don't I just play it that way? Then I understand where the risk lies. Exactly, stick to what you know, and I think if there's going to be an energy shortage, you want to be playing well, we short generation and where we are short system exalts me. That's where the massive the value of the orb is. In any generation. We should oil predominately that if we want to be playing companies up in that category and the energy system, we should everything to do with technology in storage, in carbon capture. So you won't be long. The companies were delivering that technology. Carbon companies, companies that can deliver storage. So it's sort of like a barbell, but you could be very specific when you take that bet on the equities.

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