Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Iran’s response to an Israeli threat to take unspecified action against Tehran’s nuclear program was to test-launch a ballistic missile on Thursday, demonstrating a 2,000-km range and capable of carrying a 1,500-kg warhead. Tehran is keen to point out that its ballistic missiles can reach U.S. and Israeli bases in the region. That news would normally have pushed oil prices up; however, as of early Thursday, oil prices had failed to respond to this geopolitical threat.
Erodgan appears poised to win Turkey’s run-off elections on Sunday as an otherwise inconsequential candidate (Sinan Ogan) who managed to win 5.17% of the vote in the first round has thrown his support to the incumbent, essentially rendering him the “kingmaker” in these critical polls. Erdogan has vowed to “erase” the opposition from Turkish politics completely. Interestingly, there appears to be a shift in attitude regarding Erdogan in Washington now that it has become clear he is on a path to victory again. The Republican Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee has told reporters essentially that he foresees Washington selling F-16 fighter jets to Turkey—a major sticking point with Erdogan for years, which Washington has been using for leverage. Of course, the tradeoff will be Turkey ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership, but once re-elected, Erdogan will likely agree to that, as well.
In a major…